Won 303 in 2019, this time claimed 370, understand the mathematics behind this claim of PM Modi

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday (February 5, 2024) claimed victory of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on 370 seats in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. BJP is calling his claim as confidence, while opposition parties are calling it arrogance. While speaking in his address in the reply motion on the President’s address in the Lok Sabha, PM Modi for the first time put forward the target of seats in the Lok Sabha elections.

After this claim of PM Modi, statements have started from the opposition side. Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) MP Manoj Jha asked – Is the EVM set first? So someone is calling it a dream. PM Modi said that the way the mood of the country is, the public will help NDA win more than 400 seats and BJP 370 seats. BJP has been contesting elections on 435 seats, so are there preparations to field candidates on more seats this time? What is the calculation of this guarantee of PM Modi? To understand this, let us look at the mathematics of seats and the trend of Lok Sabha elections of the last three years-

Trend of three years Lok Sabha elections
Talking about the Lok Sabha elections of 2009, 2014 and 2019, there are 95 seats where BJP has been winning in the last three Lok Sabha elections, whereas Congress has been winning only 17 seats in 2009, 2014 and 2019. In 2014 and 2019, BJP won 173 seats, whereas Congress has only 34 such seats. These seats are considered the strongholds of BJP and Congress. If we look at the weak seats, on 199 seats BJP did not win even a single election out of three and there are 309 seats on which Congress could not win even a single election. Apart from this, there are 76 seats on which BJP has won one Lok Sabha election and Congress has 183 such seats on its account, on which it has won 1 out of three elections.

BJP’s vote share in 2019 elections
In the 2019 elections, BJP fielded candidates on 435 seats and won 224 seats with a margin of more than 50 percent votes. At the same time, in 2014 this figure was 136. That means there was an increase of 88 seats in 2019. This time Prime Minister Modi claims that this figure will increase further. Meaning, BJP is assuming that it will repeat its previous victory on 224 seats.

Even if BJP is confident of winning 224 seats, the figure of 370 is still far away. For this let’s look at another trend. In 2019, the party won 75 percent of the seats by a margin of more than one lakh votes, that is, the party won 210 seats by a margin of more than one lakh votes. There were only 10 seats on which it won by a margin of 10 thousand votes and on 30 seats the party won by a margin of 10 to 50 thousand votes. It is possible that on the basis of the party’s victory by a higher margin of votes, it seems that the 2019 seats will remain in hand and 67 more seats will be added to it. Now the question is how will 67 seats be added? On this, political experts believe that if BJP’s vote share increases by 5 percent in 72 seats and that of the opposition decreases, then 38 percent seats can increase.

6 states can make BJP’s path easier
Axis My India CMD Pradeep Gupta said that the party can benefit from good performance in 6 states. He told that if the performance of the party is good in West Bengal, Odisha, Maharashtra, Bihar, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka then it will be easy for BJP to achieve the figure of 370. However, the situation has changed in Maharashtra and Bihar. Pradeep Gupta said that in 2019, Shiv Sena was with BJP, but this time the party got divided into Shinde faction and Uddhav faction, which can be both a loss and benefit to the party.

Even though Nitish Kumar is back with BJP in Bihar, what will be the impact of the way he separated from the party and then formed the India Alliance by gathering all the opposition parties to challenge BJP in the Lok Sabha elections. Does Nitish Kumar have the same power as he used to have in 2019? He said that the question is also whether BJP will be able to repeat the performance of winning 39 out of 40 seats. He said that if it retains or increases the old tele in two of the six states – Maharashtra and Bihar, and if the party performs well in West Bengal, Odisha, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, then it can achieve the figure of 370.

Will the opposition alliance benefit from disintegration in INDIA?
In the month of July, opposition parties formed INDIA alliance to compete with the BJP led NDA alliance, which has started disintegrating. There is infighting going on within the alliance. Nitish Kumar, an important part of the alliance, has returned with BJP in Bihar. On the other hand, West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has announced to contest the elections alone. At the same time, Lok Sabha elections are near and Delhi Chief Minister and Aam Aadmi Party co-coordinator Arvind Kejriwal has announced to contest alone in the Haryana Assembly elections. In such a situation, what will be his stand regarding the general elections will be known only in the coming time. There is an ongoing tussle regarding seat sharing in the alliance and if the parties do not fight unitedly then BJP may benefit from it.

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