Opposition’s masterstroke: Officers gathered in Patna, took out a folder containing blue files, showed it on camera and with this a new twist came in the politics of the country. Gave complete details of how many people of which caste in Bihar. But the timing of releasing the report is important. Now the question is whether this report was released in view of the assembly elections of 5 states and 2024 elections? What impact will the caste survey have on the policies of political parties? Is caste survey a master stroke of opposition against BJP?
On this matter, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar said that work will be done in the interest of everyone, what work has BJP done for SC and ST? The matter has come out of Bihar but it will affect other states of the country also. First let us know about the caste survey.
The first caste census was conducted in 1872
Our society is entangled in the web of castes. Politics makes this web more complex. Go to any corner of the country and you will find various castes and parties representing each caste. The issue of caste is not new. It started one hundred and fifty years ago. The British conducted caste census for the first time in 1872 and the last time it was conducted in 1931. Data were collected, but never released. For the first time after independence, census was conducted in the country in 1951.
But the government did not conduct the counting on the basis of caste. Only SC and ST were classified as castes. After this, in 2010-2011 under UPA 2, the government took information about castes but the caste census data was not released. A similar survey was conducted in Karnataka in 2015. Even then the figures were not revealed. The government kept the report under wraps.
What does the mathematics of Bihar say?
Let us understand the mathematics of Bihar. There are 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar. Talking about the 2019 election results, Nitish’s JDU got 16 seats while BJP got 17 MPs. Lok Janshakti Party also got 6 MPs and one seat went to others.
Will the system change this time?
The pattern of Bihar shows that electoral parties distribute tickets keeping in mind the caste equation of that area and the candidates of the opponents. But will this system change this time? Will the party now give tickets to candidates on the basis of caste survey? What will be the benefit to RJD and JDU from this? Will it happen or not? Nitish and Lalu are presenting the report of caste survey whereas they should present the report card of 30 years and answer to the public as to what kind of development has been done by them in Bihar.
condition of Uttar Pradesh
After leaving Bihar we head towards UP. Before BJP came to power, regional parties dominated. Sometimes BSP and sometimes Samajwadi Party MPs have been playing an important role in the politics of UP. There are 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP. In 2019, BJP and its allies became 64 MPs. Bahujan Samaj Party won 10 seats while Samajwadi Party won 5 seats and Congress won only one seat.
Now, if Bihar’s template is followed in UP, will the regional parties contest the Lok Sabha elections against BJP on the basis of OBC and Scheduled Caste factors? This is also because OBCs are 43 percent in UP. In which the number of Yadavs is 10 percent. The Scheduled Caste base is 21 percent. Whereas the number of upper castes is around 18 percent.
The dice may change in the elections of five states
Counting days are left for the assembly elections of five states. There is a direct fight here between Congress and BJP. The question is also whether Congress will now try the OBC trick in these assembly elections by using the caste census as the basis in Bihar. This is what is indicated by Rahul’s words.
If we talk about Lok Sabha seats of UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh, then there are 185 seats in five states. BJP had performed brilliantly here in the last Lok Sabha elections. Won 165 out of 185 seats but since then a lot of water has been lost in politics. New equations and alliances were formed. Therefore the question is what will BJP do now? Will the 80-20 formula work? Votes will be sought in the name of development and temple. Or like Bihar, an attempt will be made to solve the 85-15 equation.
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