Not only profit, the decision of ‘one country, one election’ can prove to be a deal of loss for BJP

<पी शैली="पाठ-संरेखण: औचित्य सिद्ध करें;">The Ramnath Kovind Committee, formed for one country, one election, can take over its work soon. Senior officials of the Law Ministry have recently discussed with Kovind regarding the roadmap of the work. RJD MP Manoj Jha says that the government draft on One Nation-One Election is ready, just a committee has been formed to seal it.

Congress MP Rahul Gandhi has termed the proposal of One Nation-One Election as an attack on the basic structure of the Constitution. On the other hand, Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar says that the government is preparing to conduct elections ahead of time through One Nation-One Election.

One country one election BJP especially Prime Minister Narendra Modi Has been in the special agenda of In the year 2020, the Prime Minister has told this in the interest of the country.

There is a discussion in the political circles that BJP wants to centralize the elections through One Nation-One Election, so that it will be beneficial in the Lok Sabha as well as in the assembly elections.

However, experts say that the decision of one country – one election is not only profitable, it can also prove to be a deal of loss for BJP. How, let’s know it in detail…

1. The composition of the committee can become a big issue
The Central Government has constituted an 8-member committee under the chairmanship of former President Ramnath Kovind on One Nation-One Election. Home Minister Amit Shah, Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhary, former Union Minister Ghulam Nabi Azad, senior advocate Harish Salve, former Lok Sabha Secretary Subhash Kashyap, former Finance Commission Chairman NK Singh and former vigilance officer Sanjay Kothari have been included in this.

Former Union Minister P Chidambaram has questioned the composition of the committee. Chidambaram says that this is a matter of both politics and law, so the government should have shown seriousness in constituting the committee. Congress leader Adhir Ranjan Chowdhary has withdrawn his name from the committee.

Experts say that the non-inclusion of former Justice and any former Election Commission officer in the committee can become a big issue. On the other hand, except Adhir, the rest 7 members of the committee have been accused of being supported by the government.

2. BJP’s condition is not good in Maharashtra, Bihar and Bengal
In terms of Lok Sabha seats, the condition of BJP is not good in the three big states of the country, Maharashtra, Bengal and Bihar. According to the latest India Today-C Voter survey, if elections are held in Maharashtra now, the NDA will win only 20 out of 48 seats.

India alliance can win 28 seats against NDA. The India Alliance includes Congress, NCP (Sharad Pawar) and Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray). At present these 3 parties have only 10 MPs.

According to the same survey, the India alliance can get about 45 percent votes while the NDA alliance can get 40 percent votes in the elections. Experts say that if the Lok Sabha and assembly elections are held together in Maharashtra, then the NDA may suffer more losses.

2022 Uddhav’s government fell due to the alleged Operation Lotus, since then Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar have been demanding elections in Maharashtra.

Similarly, in Bihar also the position of NDA is very weak. According to the India Today-C Voter survey, out of 40 seats in Bihar, 26 seats are going to the ‘India’ alliance’s account and 14 to the NDA’s account.

According to the survey, India alliance can get 46 and NDA alliance can get 39 percent votes in Bihar elections. This becomes very important from the point of view of assembly elections. If elections are held here simultaneously, then BJP and NDA may have to suffer losses in the Lok Sabha as well as in the assembly elections.

In Bengal too, the position of BJP has become weaker than before. The party got 75 plus seats in the 2021 assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha, the party had won 18 seats, but the BJP has been embroiled in factionalism here for the past several months.

After the 2021 elections, strong leaders like Babul Supriyo, Mukul Rai and Arjun Singh have left BJP. On the other hand, Mamta Banerjee’s party has started a campaign of ‘India Wants Mamta’ in Bengal, which is becoming very popular.

In such a situation, it is believed that if elections are held before time in Bengal too, loss to BJP is possible.

3. NDA alliance above danger mark in Haryana
If One Nation – One election happens, then the situation of BJP in Haryana can get worse. Already here the swords have been drawn between the BJP and the ally JJP. After not getting absolute majority in 2019, BJP took support from JJP.

Now JJP is staking claim on 3 seats of Lok Sabha. BJP’s strategy is to take JJP along in the assembly only. If there is a tussle between the two parties, then BJP may have to bear the loss.

On the other hand, the dominance of Congress, Aam Aadmi Party and INLD is increasing day by day. If these three parties come together, then the NDA alliance may have to bear its direct loss.

4. Water will flow on the aspirations here, the reason – not a strong mass base
Elections will also be held in Telangana, Kerala and Tamil Nadu under One Nation-One Election. The BJP is slowly trying to spread its foothold in these three states, but the premature election here can prove to be a setback for the party.

Actually, here the regional party dominates a lot and BJP does not have any strong mass base, but sometimes BJP has been winning 2-3 seats in the Lok Sabha. Due to lack of strong mass base, booth management will be difficult.

For 2024, BJP is focusing on 8-10 seats in Tamil Nadu Lok Sabha. BJP is running Modi’s campaign here in Delhi like in Bengal. Similarly, in Telangana too, BJP is focusing more on Lok Sabha than on Vidhansabha.

5. A new equation can be formed in these states including UP

One nation-one election is being seen as an end to regional parties. In such a situation, it has been discussed that if the formula of one country-one election is implemented, then a new equation can be formed in UP, Assam and Telangana.

BSP can also come in India alliance on the issue of tinkering with the constitution in UP. Telangana’s BRS can also come with India alliance.

Similarly, in Assam too, parties like AIUDF can find a place in the alliance. If this happens, BJP may have to suffer losses in these three states. There are 80 Lok Sabha seats in UP, 14 in Assam and 17 in Telangana.