Madhya Pradesh CM Shivraj Chauhan (Image Source: PTI)
Perhaps this is the first time that one will have to wait for more than fifteen days to know the results of voting held once in five years. The uneasiness is increasing because the results of the exit polls to be held after voting will also come only after the elections in all the states are over, i.e. on 30th November.
In such a situation, the question is bound to arise that whom have the voters made victorious and whom have they defeated, whose government will be formed after December 3 and who will become the Chief Minister. These questions are not easy to solve, but if they cannot be solved, then why do the journalists who roam around so much and the politicians boast of being in touch with the public. After looking at the issues and rallies of the month long campaign after the Model Code of Conduct, it seems that this election was an election without any wave.
However, both the parties left no stone unturned to fill the minds of voters with new issues. PM Modi’s three huge rallies in a day and Rahul Priyanka’s meetings also did not reduce. Leaving aside the national leaders, Shivraj from BJP and Kamal Nath from Congress held huge meetings across the state. But no such issue emerged on which the entire election seemed to revolve around it. Chief Minister Shivraj, who held 165 meetings, remained dependent on his beloved sisters and beloved Lakshmi, while Kamal Nath kept talking about changing the old government. It can be said that this election was anti-incumbency or anti-government.
Happy with the figures after voting, BJP is claiming that sisters have voted for Shivraj Bhaiya in large numbers. There has been a two percent increase in women’s voting in 2023 compared to 2018. Also, there are 34 such districts in Madhya Pradesh where women have voted more than men. BJP claims that the number of Laadli Brahmins in the state is 1 crore 31 lakh. There are also 24 lakh beloved Lakshmiyas. The number of women in the self-help groups running under government patronage is also in lakhs and all of them together have become a big vote bank of Chief Minister Shivraj, who have been standing in queues to vote for BJP in the elections. This time too, the dear sisters are supporting their brother’s party. Will not disappoint.
But before reaching any conclusion, it is also important to know that the number of women voters has increased but if we compare them with male votes, the number of women voters is less by two percent. In the last election also, the figure was the same that the total female voting was about two percent less than that of men. If we look at the social statistics in the districts where women voting is more, they are poor areas of the state where the problem of migration of men is more. In the villages of these areas, the names of male voters are registered in the list but due to employment, they live outside the village. In the last elections, there were 54 districts where women voting was more, hence this time such districts are less. Nevertheless, the figures of women voting strengthen the claims of the government and also that of democracy.
However, BJP strategists believe that in those seats which are stuck in close contests, the increased votes of two to three thousand beloved sisters will swing those seats in favor of BJP and bring them to majority. Although in the conversation, Chief Minister Shivraj was not ready to accept this scheme as an election scheme, but after voting, BJP had nothing worth mentioning in this election except this scheme.
However, when BJP entered the elections, it was happy with the fact that there are 2.5 crore beneficiaries of sixteen government schemes of Shivraj government in the state and all of them will be with the government in the elections. These beneficiaries were repeatedly reminded in different ways and even during the elections, they were being urged to go to the call centers set up in BJP offices to cast their votes. The workers were also prepared to bring their voters to the booth by 12 noon. It was expected that this would also increase the vote percentage and BJP would be in advantage. The vote percentage increased in the entire state but only by two percent which cannot be called remarkable. This vote increased awareness. The vote percentage in the districts dominated by BJP did not increase as expected, this is a cause of concern for the party.
Now talking about the wave of change in the claims of Congress, election experts claim that if the vote percentage increases by three to five percent, then there is a change in the government. This happened in 1990, 1993, 2003, but this time this percentage is only one and a half percent. It has increased by only around two percent. Even after that, Congress is claiming to increase its seats in Bundelkhand, Baghelkhand and Gwalior Chambal. And is claiming to return to the government.
The success of Congress in the elections was that it did not make any major mistakes in the entire election campaign. Congress fought unitedly and instead of the elections being Congress against BJP, the people kept turning it against BJP. Due to the many preaching babas in the state, it seemed that there would be Hindu-Muslim polarization in the elections, but the babas advocating Hindu Rashtra remained calm and Congress did not allow any such attempt to prevail.
The most interesting thing in this election is that apart from the claims of BJP and Congress leaders, no expert or public is saying whose government will be formed. But it seems that if Laadli Behna goes its way, BJP will come close to forming the government and if it does not go then it will be badly uprooted.